A rice shortage is the worst fear of scores of economic policy analysts who buck the surprise price cap on certain rice varieties.

We need to be aware of their fear and understand it. Anything to do with rice directly affects our dinner tables during these challenging times when inflation, fueled by rising food prices, is spiking again.

While I had opined earlier that the rice price cap was a largely political decision, economic policy analysts do have enough gripping points on the situation that could lead to grave political problems.

Mainly criticizing the price cap as gambling with the ironclad economic law of supply and demand, many policy analysts insist the gamble will lead nowhere but to consumer frustration and rice shortages.

This is even if there is a period where inflation-weary consumers will generally welcome price controls on rice.

How brief or how long that period of consumer satisfaction will be depends on how long the cheap rice supplies will last, however.

Analysts warn that should there be less rice to go around, for one reason or another, rice rationing will be around the corner.

The ugly scenario of Filipinos again lining up for scarce, cheap, and rationed rice is prompting many analysts to loudly call on the Marcos government to rescind the price cap and seek other measures to control the surging price of rice.

Despite such worries and criticism, the Marcos government remains confident and adamant, however, showing so far, that it isn't worried the price cap may trigger shortages.

It's a palpable confidence borne mainly by the prospect of an adequate rice harvest next month.

Moreover, government officials believe that enforcing a price cap would be enough to discourage speculators and flush out hoarders.

Still, the officials somehow admit that the price caps won't adversely impact well-entrenched rice wholesalers and importers.

The government instead acknowledges that many small rice retailers, from whom low-income consumers buy rice, will initially bear the brunt of the price caps.

Various news reports indicate that small rice retailers are already facing difficulties, with many saying their current supplies were procured at prices higher than the government's ceiling.

As such, many small rice retailers say they are selling at a loss — by as much as P40,000 weekly, according to one regional grain retail group.

The group said some of their members have decided to close shop rather than absorb the losses.

Meanwhile, another farmers' group warned that retailers trying to cut their losses may be tempted to rebrand price-controlled rice varieties as varieties not covered by the price cap.

Responding to complaints, the Marcos government first asked for "sacrifices" from small rice retailers but subsequently promised them a P2-billion subsidy.

Under the subsidy, affected rice retailers stand to receive P15,000 each from the Department of Social Welfare and Development.

Worried policy analysts, however, say the subsidy will be hard to implement and may create more problems than it will solve.

Problems like how to check claims thoroughly and adequately for subsidy. Such an undertaking would require a bureaucratic army that should be largely corruption-free. Easier imagined than done.

Amid these misgivings, analysts insist the only workable solution is reducing tariffs on imported rice. They believe reducing the taxes would encourage private-sector importers to bring in more rice.

Surprisingly, some senior finance officials are heeding the clamor for reduced tariffs.

But these same senior officials say that any reduction in rice tariffs will be "temporary and calibrated."

This only means that the Marcos government first wants to see if the price cap will work, leaving us nervous about whether this government is fast or astute enough to assess the rice crisis properly.