Inflation forecast at 7.9% this month
This could be offset in part by the reduction in electricity rates for Meralco-serviced areas, lower liquefied petroleum gas prices, and reduction in prices of fish
This could be offset in part by the reduction in electricity rates for Meralco-serviced areas, lower liquefied petroleum gas prices, and reduction in prices of fish
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas projected inflation in October to settle within the range of 7.1 percent to 7.9 percent.
In a statement, the BSP said inflation pressures for the month are expected to emanate from transport fare hikes, elevated domestic petroleum prices, higher agricultural commodity prices because of recent typhoons, and the depreciation of the peso.
"This could be offset in part by the reduction in electricity rates for Meralco-serviced areas, lower liquefied petroleum gas prices, and reduction in prices of fish," the central bank added.
More importantly, inflation is projected to gradually decelerate in the succeeding months as the cost-push shocks to inflation dissipate because of weather disturbances and transport fare adjustments.
"Looking ahead, the central bank will continue to monitor closely emerging price developments to enable timely intervention that could help prevent the further broadening of price pressures, in accordance with the BSP's price stability mandate," the statement read.
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Chief economist Robert Dan Roces of Security Bank Corp. said the bank has estimated the October 2022 inflation rate at 7.1 percent year-on-year, with a range of 6.9 percent to 7.3 percent.
For his part, chief economist Michael Ricafort of Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. said RCBC has estimated for October 2022 inflation at 7.1 percent YoY.
"Inflation could have already topped out at a little over 7 percent in October 2022 and could start to ease gradually thereafter and could even ease year-on-year significantly, especially starting first quarter of 2023 because of higher base/denominator effects, as global crude oil prices peak in early March 2022, with the Nymex crude oil price posting a high of $130.50 per barrel on 7 March, but already significantly corrected lower thereafter, now at $88/barrel," Ricafort said.
