Filipinos will spend Christmas 2022 under the punishing weight of inflation, or the rate of increase in prices over a given period.
In the Philippines, inflation in November was at 8 percent — on record as the highest the country has experienced in 14 years, data from the Philippines Statistics Authority showed.
The biggest factor is the rise in food prices, partly aggravated by the spate of typhoons which damaged the production of vegetables, rice and fruits.
To ease widespread anxiety, National Economic and Development Authority Sec. Arsenio M. Balisacan issued a statement: "The government is continuously implementing targeted subsidies and discounts to allay the impact of the higher prices of essential goods, especially for the vulnerable sectors and low-income earners of our society."
The way to push prices down is to increase food production, which Balisacan said the government is helping induce.
If we ask housewives, they will be quick to point out, for instance, that a grocery budget of P4,000 today is worth a measly P2,000.
A Daily Tribune editor said for his weekly grocery needs to fit his budget, he had to stop buying chocolates and other snacks now considered luxuries.
He added imagining how the masses are coping is a depressing thought.
In technical terms, the inflation problem is thorny but "not unique" to the Philippines, JPMorgan's global strategist Kerry Craig was quoted in a CNBC report. He explained, "the rise in prices is driven by supply-side pressures rather than an increase in demand."
Craig added: "Given the pace of inflation, it's likely that a further rate hike will come later this December."
The CNBC report said, "ING economist Nicholas Mapa forecasts that the Philippine central bank may raise rates by 50 basis points at its mid-December meeting, bringing the policy rate to 5.5 percent.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised interest rates six times this year, according to data from Refinitiv.
"In spite of growth being expected to slow down in 2023, the November inflation data suggests that the central bank still has a number of rate hikes in the pipeline 'to help stem any second-round effects from higher food prices, rein in demand, and make sure inflation expectations are well anchored,'" said Aris Dacanay, ASEAN Economist from HSBC Global Research.
"Dacanay also said he expects the BSP to pause its tightening cycle when the policy rate reaches 6.25 percent."
What does this mean to the ordinary Filipino?
To put it simply, expect hard times, even as the government's economic managers try their best to remedy the situation.
And yet, as a pall of gloom descends on many depressed communities all over the country, the reason for the season remains the same: Jesus Christ, who was born poor in a makeshift delivery room, is a symbol of hope for humanity to rise above crisis after crisis to proclaim the meaning of living — to love each other.
Merry Christmas.
