CoC deadline slips as key issues remain

ASEAN and China will miss their 2026 deadline for completing a Code of Conduct (CoC) for the South China Sea, as negotiators failed to resolve key issues despite substantial progress in drafting the long-awaited agreement, Foreign Affairs Secretary Ma. Theresa Lazaro said Sunday.

Lazaro said about 70 percent of the CoC package had been agreed, but differences on several crucial provisions remained, preventing the parties from completing the agreement within the 2026 deadline they had set three years ago.

Speaking at a press briefing on the opening day of the 49th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits, Lazaro initially put the progress at 80 percent before clarifying that about 70 percent of the draft had been completed.

Negotiations will continue under Singapore’s ASEAN chairmanship in 2027, extending efforts to establish a set of rules governing conduct and cooperation in the strategically important and contested waterway.

Lazaro identified four outstanding issues: whether the CoC would be legally binding, its geographical scope, its relationship with the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and its terms of reference.

These provisions are considered critical to determining the agreement’s reach and effectiveness. Its geographical scope will determine which areas and activities fall under the agreement, while its legal status will establish whether its provisions are binding and enforceable.

Negotiators must also settle how the proposed code will relate to the 2002 declaration and agree on its terms of reference, which will define its purpose, participants and operational framework.

Lazaro acknowledged that the parties had made substantial headway but said the remaining differences involved sensitive matters that required further discussion. She identified these as the remaining “salient points” holding up the completion of the agreement.

ASEAN and China agreed in 2023 to accelerate negotiations and conclude the CoC by 2026. The target was intended to give fresh impetus to a process that has dragged on for more than two decades.

The proposed code aims to establish clearer rules for managing tensions, preventing incidents and promoting cooperation in the South China Sea, where overlapping territorial and maritime claims have repeatedly strained relations among claimant countries.

The negotiations build on the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, a nonbinding political commitment by ASEAN members and China to exercise self-restraint, avoid actions that could escalate disputes, and pursue peaceful solutions.

Despite repeated commitments to conclude a code, negotiations have encountered difficulties over its scope and legal nature.

The missed deadline means the Philippines will end its ASEAN chairmanship without securing the long-sought CoC, a key regional priority under its leadership of the bloc.

Lazaro said monthly meetings under the Philippine chairmanship helped accelerate negotiations and advance the draft agreement.

However, she said the remaining issues required further discussion and that negotiations would continue under Singapore’s chairmanship in 2027.

Myanmar, Timor-Leste

Lazaro also said ASEAN leaders agreed to consider restoring Myanmar’s political representation in the bloc gradually, provided it makes sustained and concrete progress in implementing the Five-Point Consensus.

The leaders’ review stated that ASEAN may consider restoring Myanmar’s full political representation only if there is sustained and concrete implementation of the consensus, which was adopted in 2021 following the military takeover that plunged the country into prolonged political turmoil.

The consensus calls for an immediate end to violence, constructive dialogue among all parties, the appointment of an ASEAN special envoy, the provision of humanitarian assistance, and a visit by the envoy to meet with relevant stakeholders.

Lazaro stressed that the bloc was not easing its position on Myanmar. Proposals concerning the country’s participation in ASEAN meetings remained under discussion, but no final decision had been reached.

ASEAN barred Myanmar’s military leaders from high-level meetings over their failure to implement the consensus, allowing only non-political representatives to attend.

Lazaro also announced that ASEAN leaders had agreed to allow Timor-Leste to chair the regional bloc in 2029, following its admission as ASEAN’s 11th member in 2025.

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the Manila summit produced more than 100 outcome documents.

The 49th ASEAN Summit and Related Summits are being held in Manila from 15 to 17 November.