Getting ready for the unknown unknowns

In Rumsfeld’s Uncertainty Matrix, there is the concept of unknown unknowns, which refers to blind spots and unpredictable events that can occur.

Over the past two to three years, many countries around the world have been communicating to their citizens the need to prepare for an emergency or disaster. However, recent updates or reiterations of existing formal civilian guidance plans by the United Kingdom, the European Union, Poland, Ireland and Japan have prompted the questions: Why are they preparing, and what are they preparing for?

It is not strange that these moves have raised curiosity around the world, as they seem to reflect a coordinated effort to be prepared. Moreover, the lack of an explanation from the governments about the reasons behind the updates adds to the speculation. What do these countries see that we do not? After all, there is the old adage that where there is smoke, there is fire.

My own take is that the truth, in this case, is half and half. The timing is likely a coincidence only, but new risks have arisen. There is one common thing that can be said of governments that have updated their civilian emergency preparedness plans. They are democracies with long and well-documented histories. The documentation of their histories allows countries to draw lessons from the past to guide preparation for future events.

As they say, history does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Thus, while there may be no common reason why these countries are updating their emergency preparedness now, there is a common experience that may be driving these policy updates.

The Philippines itself is not an unprepared country. Natural disasters are nothing new to us, and we have the necessary leadership, organizations and infrastructure to manage them, albeit the availability and allocation of resources are constrained by fiscal capacity. In other words, we do with what we have.

The takeaway from the recent updates is not that there is imminent danger but rather that there are new risks that need to be managed. A primary one that is becoming clearer is cyberattacks.

Over the past few weeks, we have had hacking incidents involving Binance and supermarkets in France that resulted in theft and spoiled food, respectively. While not related to a cyberattack, this week’s report on a banking crisis in Paraguay involves its largest digital bank, which reminds us of the systemic risk and social impact of its collapse. Ueno Bank is the sixth-largest bank in Paraguay and accounts for three million customers, or roughly 60 percent of the country’s adult population.

We are prepared, but we also need to update our preparation plans regularly. If the risks of cyberattacks and the probability of external or internal conflict are deemed to be increasing, we need to update our plans to include these risks. These are strategic preparations, however. The updates in Europe, Japan and the US concern civilian preparedness: What should you be doing in an emergency?

The main weakness in Philippine civilian preparedness is the expectation and dependency on the government and God to do all the lifting. The update in European civilian preparedness essentially says that it is possible that government services will be impaired for some time, so you will be on your own.

In general, the updates suggest civilians need to prepare to be independent for three days as a benchmark, but potentially a week for some. This does not mean there is no community-led assistance or that there is no government presence.

But if, say, the power grid is down for an extended period and logistics to bring in food and help are constrained by infrastructure, civilians need to be self-capable and resilient while government disaster response makes its way to them.

We have seen this before when super typhoon “Yolanda” hit Eastern Samar, Leyte and nearby islands in 2013. The government response was there, but getting in was difficult because of damaged ports or insufficient capacity to handle the volume. Unfortunately, many of our Filipino brethren affected by “Yolanda” were on their own for some time before help got to them. In many ways, the lessons of that event have driven our disaster resilience strategy.

It is therefore important to review your emergency plans, keep your bug-out or go-bags up to date, maintain a supply of potable water for a minimum of three days, and develop skills that would come in handy, such as first aid, self-defense and radio operations.

Most importantly, practice so that if an emergency does arise, you are mentally prepared to help yourself, your family and your neighbors.