FFFCI warns of potential rice oversupply as imports surge

The Federation of Free Farmers Cooperative Inc. (FFFCI) has raised concerns over a potential rice oversupply in the Philippines, warning that projected import volumes for 2026 are excessive and could disrupt the domestic market as the local harvest season approaches.

FFFCI National Manager Raul Montemayor, in a radio interview on Thursday, cautioned that rice imports could reach between 5 million and 5.8 million metric tons this year.

The projected import volume far exceeds the actual deficit caused by recent agricultural calamities, making additional shipments unnecessary and potentially harmful to local farmers.

According to FFFCI estimates, local palay production in 2026 is projected to decline by approximately 1 million metric tons, translating to a shortfall of roughly 700,000 metric tons of milled rice.

However, this domestic production decline is already being more than offset by the influx of imported rice.

Total imports are expected to reach at least 5 million metric tons this year, up sharply from the 3.5 million metric tons imported in 2025.

Montemayor pointed out that the additional 1.5 million metric tons of imports would more than cover the estimated 700,000-metric-ton shortfall in local milled rice production.

"As far as supply is concerned, we don't have much of a problem despite the calamities," Montemayor said, shifting the focus from scarcity to market stability.

"Actually, the problem is that we might have an oversupply when the harvest comes."

The FFFCI advised the government against allowing imports to reach the projected 5.5 million to 5.8 million metric tons.

It stressed that the initial 5-million-metric-ton volume would already be sufficient to stabilize national supply, warning that additional shipments could trigger a market glut and hurt local producers.

Montemayor attributed the decline in palay production primarily to a reduction in planted areas rather than a significant drop in yield per hectare.

He said rising fertilizer and fuel prices had made farming increasingly expensive, forcing some farmers to reduce their cultivated areas or leave portions of their land unplanted because they could no longer afford production inputs.

Successive typhoons and flooding also contributed to the decline, particularly in Western Visayas, Cagayan Valley and Central Luzon.

Western Visayas, particularly Iloilo, was among the hardest-hit areas, with production in the region dropping by about 60 percent, he said.

Other affected areas included Isabela and Cagayan in Cagayan Valley, as well as Nueva Ecija and Pampanga in Central Luzon.

Montemayor said the April-to-June planting season was not significantly affected by El Niño because rainfall remained relatively abundant during those months.

However, he expressed concern that the weather phenomenon could affect the next cropping season, particularly the harvest expected in March, April and May 2027.

He said farmers traditionally expect favorable yields from the September-to-November planting season, but the anticipated El Niño could undermine production.

While importing rice ahead of a possible supply shortage makes sense as a precaution, Montemayor said the government should also ensure that domestic farmers receive adequate support.

He warned that the Philippines could face higher rice prices or even difficulty securing supplies if El Niño also affects production in other rice-exporting countries.

"If we wait until we are in the middle of El Niño, our rice could become expensive. And it may not just be expensive; we might not even be able to buy it," he said.

Montemayor also criticized what he described as the government's delayed response to farmers affected by calamities, saying assistance programs had yet to produce satisfactory results despite substantial budget allocations.

He questioned the effectiveness of government-funded agricultural interventions, including solar-powered irrigation systems, saying the equipment would be useless if there was insufficient water to pump.

He said the government should prioritize water conservation and water impounding projects to prepare farming communities for prolonged dry spells.

Rather than channeling assistance through multiple layers of government agencies, Montemayor proposed providing financial assistance directly to farmers so they could decide how best to use the funds for their farms.

He said a more direct approach could speed up assistance and reduce delays in delivering support to farmers.