El Niño's farm impact to peak in early 2027 — DA

The Department of Agriculture (DA) warned that El Niño could inflict its heaviest blow on local agriculture in the first half of 2027, potentially pushing rice production losses beyond one million metric tons (MT) and threatening to drive up food prices.

DA spokesperson and Assistant Secretary Arnel V. de Mesa said the worst effects of the weather phenomenon are expected to emerge next year, when reduced rainfall could further weaken domestic farm output while tightening regional rice supplies and pushing up international prices.

The agency has already raised its projected rice production losses from 700,000 MT to one million MT, warning that the damage could worsen depending on the severity and duration of El Niño and the availability of irrigation water.

“The real impact of El Niño will not be felt this year, but next year, specifically in the first half. If Southeast Asia’s dry cropping season is disrupted, production could be affected, and rice prices in the international market could surge,” de Mesa said during the Kapihan sa Manila Bay forum on Wednesday.

“For now, the situation remains favorable because we have sufficient supply to get us through El Niño. So even if problems arise in the first half of next year, which we hope will not happen, we have enough supply to sustain us through El Niño,” he added.

De Mesa said rainfed farms would bear the brunt of El Niño as reduced rainfall limits planting areas, potentially dragging down overall agricultural output despite higher productivity per hectare during warmer weather.

The damage could extend beyond rice to corn, vegetables, livestock, and fisheries, further threatening domestic food production.

"If the dry cropping season in Southeast Asia is disrupted, production could be affected, and rice prices in the international market could surge," de Mesa warned.

Despite the looming production shortfall, the DA maintained that the country has sufficient rice inventories to cushion the impact of El Niño.

De Mesa said rice imports had reached 4.8 million metric tons as of October, with total arrivals potentially climbing to between 5.5 million and 5.8 million metric tons by December.

He stressed the importance of securing adequate supplies ahead of next year's anticipated disruptions, particularly while rice remains available at relatively favorable prices in the international market.

However, the weakening peso poses another risk to food prices by raising import costs.

To cushion the impact, the DA is favoring cheaper 25-percent broken rice, which costs around $370 to $380 per metric ton, compared with approximately $500 for five-percent broken rice.

De Mesa said the lower import cost could help offset the effects of tariffs and the weaker peso, keeping domestic rice prices relatively manageable despite the anticipated supply pressures.

Still, he cautioned that agricultural losses could exceed current projections if El Niño persists longer than expected and irrigation supplies become insufficient to sustain production.

Latest government data as of 21 October showed that El Niño had caused P8.57 billion in agricultural losses, affecting 288,058 farmers and 291,154 hectares of farmland nationwide.

The DA reported total production losses of 220,307 MT, including 71,408 MT of rice and 132,290 MT of corn.

To mitigate the impact, the agency provided P11.34 billion in initial assistance, including production support and crop insurance.