BUSINESS

Green trade could generate 9.5M jobs by 2030

Mico Virata · Oct 31, 2026, 10:55 AM

PLASTIC bottles compressed into bales at a recycling facility operated by Norway’s Infinitum. The company’s bottle-return system is among the approaches being discussed as the Philippines explores ways to improve waste recovery. — Photograph courtesy of Infinitum

The expansion of green exports could create an additional 9.5 million jobs worldwide by 2030, with Asia and the Pacific expected to capture a significant share through electrical and electronic manufacturing, according to a study by the International Labour Organization (ILO).

The report, titled “ILO Working Paper 181: Advancing Green Trade and Employment under Global Uncertainty,” identified China as the biggest potential beneficiary, with an estimated 3.63 million additional jobs.

The East Asia and Pacific region could gain 2.37 million jobs, while the European Union is projected to add 1.64 million.

Machinery and equipment are expected to drive 30% to 40% of green trade-related employment across most regions and income groups, particularly in high-income economies.

Electrical and electronic equipment is the leading source of direct employment in China and Latin America and ranks second in other regions, including East Asia and the Pacific.

Motor vehicles, metal products and chemicals are also expected to contribute, although their impact varies by region.

The ILO warned that rising trade barriers could undermine these gains. Escalating tariffs and retaliatory measures could eliminate around 530,000 jobs that green trade would otherwise support, with the most exposed economies bearing the greatest losses.

“Keeping barriers to environmental goods low is therefore a labour-market objective as much as a climate one,” the agency said.

The study also found that green trade-related jobs in middle-income economies tend to be more formal than the overall workforce average, but remain less accessible to women because of the concentration of employment in manufacturing industries.

“Without deliberate action on training and recruitment, an expansion of green trade risks widening the gender gap in employment,” the ILO said.

The report noted that China and high-income economies are expected to capture most employment gains, while South Asia and Africa combined could add fewer than 90,000 jobs.