Gasoline rebound erases rollback gains

Motorists could lose nearly 70 percent of their recent fuel savings as gasoline prices are poised to surge by up to P3.20 per liter next week, reversing much of the relief from two consecutive weeks of rollbacks.

Jetti Petroleum Inc. President Leo Bellas said Friday gasoline prices could rise by P2.90 to P3.20 per liter next week, while diesel prices may fall by P0.40 to P0.60 per liter.

The projected gasoline hike would wipe out 63 to 70 percent of the P4.60-per-liter reduction recorded over the past two weeks, leaving motorists with net savings of just P1.40 to P1.70 per liter.

For a motorist filling a 50-liter gasoline tank, the increase would mean paying an additional P145 to P160 compared with this week’s prices.

Bellas attributed the renewed pressure on fuel prices to escalating Middle East tensions, particularly concerns over possible US military action against Iran and continued attacks threatening regional energy supplies.

“Diesel and gasoline closely followed the movement of crude oil, which continues to be supported by concerns about energy supply disruptions in the Middle East as regional attacks continue and worries the US could strike Iran after next week’s US midterm elections,” Bellas said.

However, hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough to end the eight-month-long conflict helped limit further increases in global oil prices.

Improving fuel supply prospects in Asia also helped ease market pressure, particularly on diesel.

China issued a fourth batch of export quotas for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, while South Korea relaxed its diesel export restrictions, potentially releasing additional supply into regional markets.

Russian diesel and gasoline exports also reached peak levels amid a pause in confirmed Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.

Bellas said these developments pressured diesel prices, reversing earlier gains despite continued geopolitical uncertainty.

The anticipated diesel rollback would provide limited relief following a cumulative P3.80-per-liter increase over the previous two weeks.

Even after the projected reduction, diesel prices would remain P3.20 to P3.40 per liter higher than their levels before the recent hikes.

Based on estimated Metro Manila pump prices for 27 October to 2 November, regular gasoline could climb to P77.50 to P96.67 per liter next week, while diesel could ease to P88.90 to P99.60 per liter.

Bellas said the estimates were based on the first four trading days of Mean of Platts Singapore prices and foreign exchange averages compared with the previous week’s full-week average.

The forecast excludes week-on-week changes in ocean freight and insurance costs, which could still affect final pump price adjustments.