Uy warns China could cripple Philippine economy without military force

Geopolitical analyst and columnist Anna Malindog Uy criticized Defense Secretary Gilberto “Gibo” Teodoro Jr.’s call for Filipino businesses to explore alternative markets outside China, warning that economic pressure from Beijing could severely affect the Philippines even without military intervention.

Uy argued that the country’s reliance on Chinese trade and imports makes it vulnerable to economic disruptions amid tensions between Manila and Beijing.

“What I'm saying is that the Chinese don't need to use military force. Just by crippling our economy, we will already suffer,” Uy warned in an interview.

“Even just looking at the economy, our exports and imports, if they prohibit the export of refined fuel to the Philippines, which accounts for 40 percent of our fuel needs, we will already be in trouble,” she added.

Her remarks came after Teodoro urged Filipino businesses to explore alternative markets to reduce the country’s economic dependence on China amid tensions over Chinese Ambassador Jing Quan’s statements concerning the West Philippine Sea.

Teodoro argued that the Philippines should pursue market diversification and industrialization to strengthen its economic resilience and reduce vulnerabilities arising from its dependence on China.

However, Uy questioned the practicality of finding alternative trading partners, citing stiff competition among Southeast Asian countries seeking access to the Chinese market.

“He said Filipino businessmen who export and do business with China should look for other markets. Is that easy? Are you out of your mind?” she said.

“My God, Gibo, it's not easy to find a market. It is not as if we don't have competition within ASEAN,” she claimed.

The analyst further pointed out that Southeast Asian countries compete for access to the Chinese market, with many exporting products similar to those offered by the Philippines.

“All ASEAN countries are competing for access to the Chinese market. Even then, the products exported by other Southeast Asian countries are the same products we export. We are competing, but at least we still have a place in the Chinese market,” she said.

Uy also cited the Philippines’ dependence on imported refined fuel and agricultural fertilizers, as well as China’s 40-percent stake in the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP), as potential economic vulnerabilities.

China’s State Grid Corporation holds a 40-percent equity stake in NGCP, while Filipino companies retain majority ownership. The Chinese stake, however, does not automatically translate into unilateral control over the country’s electricity transmission operations.

“Take note, even when you talk about electricity, China owns 40 percent of NGCP, I think. So even that, if they pull out, that's another problem for us,” Uy said.

She further argued that economic challenges in Europe and the United States could complicate efforts to diversify the Philippines’ export markets.

“The European economy is not okay. It's not even good at this time. Many European economies are going down. The United States is not stable economically,” she said.

“And then where would you go? Where would you go, really?” Uy asked.

The columnist then urged the Marcos administration, particularly Teodoro, to exercise caution in handling relations with Beijing, considering the potential economic consequences.

“The current administration of Marcos Jr., especially the likes of Gibo, should be very careful, particularly those who engage in grandstanding and bravado without any substance,” Uy said.

“At the end of the day, it is the Philippines that will face problems, and Filipinos will certainly be affected,” she stressed.