COP 31 and Pax Silica

On 21 October 2026, the UN Environment Programme released its Emissions Gap Report, stating that warming will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Amid the data center frenzy, the cognitive dissonance looms large when COP31 convenes in Antalya, Türkiye, this November. While communities face heat and floods, data centers will demand more electricity and, depending on their cooling systems, water. Their waste heat is distinct from the greenhouse gas emissions driving global warming.

The numbers speak for themselves. The International Energy Agency’s 2025 forecast puts global data center electricity use at 945 terawatt-hours annually by 2030, more than double 2024 levels and slightly above Japan’s then-current consumption.

UNEP’s pathway requires emission cuts of 18 percent by 2030 and 45 percent by 2035 from 2025 levels, plus carbon removal, for roughly a 50-percent chance of returning to 1.5°C by 2100. Greed has once again glossed over this inconvenient truth.

Countries like the Philippines face a quandary: how to join the digital economy without overburdening grids or worsening climate change.

PricewaterhouseCoopers forecasts roughly US$32 trillion in cumulative global data center capital expenditure through 2050, including US$800 billion in 2026.

Baku’s climate-finance goal is at least US$300 billion annually by 2035 for developing countries, with developed countries leading, alongside a US$1.3 trillion annual scaling objective by 2035. These are different funding pools and not directly comparable totals. Which priority comes first: protecting people or feeding the AI Frankenstein’s monster?

The Philippines topped the 2025 World Risk Index for disaster risk; our June 2026 residential power rates were ASEAN’s highest. BCDA estimates three gigawatts for Pax Silica’s proposed Clark manufacturing hub at full development — roughly 15 percent of summed 2026 regional peaks.

The government’s announced counterpart? BCDA land plus two years’ lease payment grace, with no dedicated allocation in the proposed 2027 budget. DTI expects investors to bring their own power and water. When shortages occur, who gets power first? There’s also the small detail that the State Grid Corporation of China owns 40 percent of NGCP, the transmission concessionaire. Who will be connecting the US-anchored project consortium?

Amid weak governance, corruption, geopolitical strife, and economic slowdown, implementation governance becomes the main issue. There will be pressure to sign agreements when Trump visits next month.

The cycle has become familiar: documents that say or mean little, hurriedly drafted and signed to great fanfare. Speeches delivered, everyone slapping each other on the back, then going on their merry way. The goal must be to go beyond the photo opportunity. The country needs jobs. Climate-resilient power, water, and transport must be non-negotiables in these agreements.

To regain credibility, priorities must be set and accountability clear. If Pax Silica with its data centers and other strategic facilities is to be built, let it come with its own renewable power, resilient transport, and water storage instead of competing with existing users in Central Luzon.

Development must be additive. There should be a way to integrate the Clark National Food Hub, with ADB engaged as transaction adviser, into this.

Sustainability must be the overriding theme of Pax Silica. Building this flagship project as a smart climate-resilient development should not be an option but an imperative. It is actually a golden opportunity.

It is incumbent on the BCDA to create enough trust and confidence to entice credible private sector partners to jump-start the development. At the risk of being labeled naïve, a resource-intensive project and climate adaptation can coexist. In the current environment, projects like this are few and far between.

Paralysis is out of the question. The economy needs a win. Desperately.