Diesel prices climb anew, gasoline gets relief

Diesel users face another costly week at the pump, with prices poised to rise by up to P2.50 per liter as escalating attacks on oil infrastructure and shipments threaten global supplies.

Gasoline motorists, meanwhile, could get another break as prices are expected to fall by up to P1.50 per liter on improving supply conditions in Asia.

Based on the first four days of trading in the Mean of Platts Singapore and foreign exchange averages, diesel prices are projected to increase by P2 to P2.50 per liter, while gasoline could decline by P1 to P1.50 per liter starting Tuesday.

The forecast, however, does not yet account for week-on-week freight movements, which could still affect the final adjustments.

For diesel users, the projected increase means paying an additional P100 to P125 for every 50-liter tank, adding pressure on transport operators, logistics firms and other businesses already grappling with elevated fuel costs.

Gasoline motorists, on the other hand, could save P50 to P75 for the same volume.

If the forecast holds, regular diesel prices in Metro Manila could climb to between P90.30 and P101.30 per liter, while premium diesel could reach as high as P105.27 per liter.

Gasoline prices could fall to as low as P73.40 per liter for RON 91, while RON 95 could range from P74.20 to P97.50 per liter.

Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas said Friday that escalating hostilities in the Middle East have rattled oil markets, raising fears of deeper supply disruptions.

“Oil advanced after intensifying Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure and vessel attacks in the Gulf heightened concerns that the escalating hostilities could hit supply,” Bellas said.

He warned that the threat has spread to loading operations outside the Arab Gulf, putting crude shipments and ship-to-ship transfers at risk.

“Loadings outside of the Arab Gulf are now threatened as well, jeopardizing Gulf crude loadings and ship-to-ship transfers that helped support regional loadings,” he said.

Diesel has taken a particularly hard hit as declining oil flows from the Gulf and escalating Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries tighten refined fuel supplies.

“The decreasing oil flows from the Gulf and escalating Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have pushed the prices of refined products even higher, most notably diesel,” Bellas said.

While additional Russian diesel supplies and emergency stock releases have offered some relief, Bellas said rising geopolitical risks have outweighed these supply buffers, keeping upward pressure on prices.

Gasoline, however, is moving in the opposite direction.

“Meanwhile, rising gasoline inventories in Singapore pointed to an improving product availability in Asia,” Bellas said.

He added that persistently tight diesel supplies have encouraged refiners to maintain crude processing rates, potentially sustaining gasoline production even as demand weakens.

The contrasting movements could leave diesel-dependent industries facing another round of higher operating costs, while private motorists using gasoline enjoy a second consecutive week of price relief.

Final pump price adjustments will depend on full-week trading results, foreign exchange movements and freight costs.