BUSINESS
GCash IPO hype meets profit test
GCash operator Mynt Inc. faces its first major earnings test following its historic stock market debut, with analysts warning that heightened investor expectations could leave little room for disappointment when the fintech giant reports its third-quarter results next month.
Abacus Securities Corp. said Mynt’s flat closing performance on its first trading day at its P6.60 offer price suggested possible price stabilization by underwriters, although selling pressure remained limited.
“Conversely, local buyers seemed willing to absorb whatever foreigners were selling. Then again, this might be the stabilization fund, but our view is that there is evidence that the hype worked to some extent,” Abacus said on Wednesday.
Raised stakes for Mynt’s upcoming earnings report
However, the brokerage cautioned that the excitement surrounding the listing has raised the stakes for Mynt’s upcoming earnings report, particularly after profits declined quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter.
Abacus warned that “the risk of a disappointment is higher because of the hype but also due to the precedent set in the second quarter, which fell quarter-on-quarter.”
“For those who are looking to buy GCash, therefore, it is probably best to wait until Globe’s third quarter earnings release/briefing, which will probably be in the second week of November,” it added.
Optimistic about Mynt’s growth prospects
Despite near-term earnings risks, COL Financial Inc. remains optimistic about Mynt’s growth prospects, citing its dominant position in the country’s expanding digital finance market.
The brokerage expects Mynt’s net income to climb 18 percent to P20.4 billion this year before jumping another 26.8 percent to P25.8 billion in 2027.
Revenues are likewise projected to rise 14.9 percent to P91.7 billion in 2026 and another 23.8 percent to P113.6 billion next year, driven by higher transaction volumes and expanding digital lending operations.
COL Financial also expects Mynt’s credit portfolio to reach P132.3 billion by 2028, representing a three-year compound annual growth rate of 40.2 percent, as its lending arm, Fuse, taps the GCash ecosystem to expand consumer loans.
Listing marks beginning of a longer test
Meanwhile, Eric Jurado, hedge fund manager at SeA (Southeast Asia) Focus Portfolio, said Mynt’s successful listing marks only the beginning of a longer test of its ability to sustain growth and deliver shareholder value.
“The IPO does not automatically make these services better. That remains Mynt’s responsibility. But the capital raised, and the company’s transition to public ownership can support its next phase of growth, including product development and business expansion.
The ultimate measure of success for users will be whether Mynt continues to deliver useful, reliable services and expands access to financial opportunities,” he said.