Fuel prices seesaw as gasoline faces P4 rollback

Fuel prices are headed for another round of mixed adjustments next week, with gasoline expected to drop by more than P4 per liter while diesel prices inch higher, extending the seesaw movement in pump prices amid volatile global oil markets.

Industry estimates suggest gasoline prices could fall by P4.00 to P4.20 per liter, while diesel prices may rise by P0.20 to P0.40 per liter next week.

The projected adjustments reverse this week's trend, when gasoline prices increased by P1.56 per liter while diesel prices fell by P3.01 per liter, underscoring the continued uncertainty in global petroleum markets.

For motorists, the anticipated gasoline rollback could translate to savings of P160 to P168 for a 40-liter fill-up, while diesel users may have to shell out an additional P8 to P16 for the same volume.

Jetti Petroleum Inc. President Leo Bellas said on Friday that the contrasting price movements reflect persistent supply constraints in the diesel market and improving gasoline availability, particularly in Asia.

"Diesel rose as low global inventories persisted, but further increase is tempered by the prospect of additional supply from Russia and release of diesel stocks from G7 nations, although doubts remain whether the US-Russia diesel deal will deliver meaningful additional supply," Bellas said.

Meanwhile, gasoline prices are facing downward pressure as supply conditions improve following the resumption of refinery operations.

"Easing supply concerns in Asia and improving gasoline availability as refineries return from turnaround have pressured prices, easing week-on-week," he said.

Should the forecast materialize, gasoline prices in Metro Manila could range from P75.96 to P103.46 per liter across different grades, while regular diesel could range from P80.19 to P96.79 per liter.

Despite the expected gasoline rollback, Bellas warned that geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions continue to influence global oil prices.

"Heightened supply concerns as shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks by Houthis on Saudi Arabia continue have caused oil to rise. However, increased Gulf oil flows and output from Russia, emergency stock releases, and possible easing of restrictions by the US on sanctioned vessels that could lower freight costs have put a lid on prices," he said.

Final allowable pump price adjustments are set to be announced by the Department of Energy on Monday.