BUSINESS

IMF warns global shocks could widen rich-poor gap

Toby Magsaysay · Oct 13, 2026, 11:39 PM

SIMULTANEOUS economic shocks — driven by Middle East conflict, US tariff policies, and the erosion of the global economic order — are destabilizing both developed and developing nations as governments struggle to mitigate the consequences. — DAILY TRIBUNE IMAGES

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that prolonged conflict in the Middle East, elevated energy prices and technological disruptions could widen the economic gap between rich and poor countries, with import-dependent developing economies facing greater risks from rising costs and slower growth.

In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), released Tuesday in Bangkok, the IMF projected global economic growth of 3.1 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027, but cautioned that the headline figures mask uneven performance across economies.

Additional pressures

“A prolonged conflict in the Middle East could put additional pressures on inflation and slow down growth,” IMF chief economist Silvana Tenreyro said, warning that the global economy’s resilience was reaching its limits.

The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook put the Philippines’ growth forecast at 3.4 percent this year and 5.1 percent in 2027, unchanged from the forecasts presented on 25 September following the IMF’s Article IV Consultation Mission to the country, part of the organization’s annual consultations with member countries.

“The main external risks stem from a prolonged Middle East conflict, tighter global monetary conditions, and weaker remittances. Domestically, a weaker rebound in public investment and confidence and more frequent climate events would weigh on growth, while rising leverage and a prolonged property downturn pose financial stability risks,” said IMF Philippine mission leader Andrea Pescatori.