Battle of narratives thus far

The latest Pulse Asia and Social Weather Stations (SWS) surveys have landed with the subtlety of a monsoon downpour, drenching the Marcos administration’s carefully curated narrative in cold, hard data.

The impeachment case has utterly failed to erode or diminish the Dutertes’ significant political capital. Instead, the polls show many believe the Dutertes are victims of political persecution. First, the rendition of the father and now the impeachment of the daughter.

Vice President Sara Duterte, the subject of an impeachment trial that was supposed to cripple her politically, still commands the support of half of Filipino adults in a hypothetical 2028 presidential race. Fifty percent. Against Naga Mayor Leni Robredo’s 26 and Senator Raffy Tulfo’s 12.

The Pulse Asia survey, conducted from 17 to 24 September, coincided with the Senate impeachment court hearing evidence on Duterte’s alleged unexplained wealth. During that period, prosecutors were presenting corporate and procurement records of her alleged companies. The court had also just ruled that senators physically unable to attend would be excluded from the vote count, effectively lowering the threshold for her conviction.

The SWS survey, conducted from 21 to 27 September, told roughly the same story. The numbers are brutal. The impeachment has not damaged Duterte. Instead, it has exposed the weakness of the government that launched the process.

Why are the numbers so? Everything was seemingly in place to erode Sara’s political capital (think Jejomar Binay circa 2014). Instead, she maintains a commanding lead in all five hypothetical scenarios, including a three-way race where she secured 52 percent against Robredo’s 30 and Tulfo’s 14.

The answer lies not in Duterte’s innocence or guilt, but in the Marcos administration’s failure to offer the public anything better. When 56 percent of Filipinos say they trust Sara Duterte (when only 36 percent say the same of Marcos Jr.) they are not merely expressing support for the Vice President. They signal a frustration with a government that has promised much but delivered little.

The flood control scandal — ghost projects, substandard infrastructure, billions in kickbacks — remains a festering wound. Two years after the scandal broke, only a select few have been charged.

Meanwhile, the floodwaters keep rising. And with it, rice, meat and vegetable prices. An unrelenting inflation quickened to 7.2 percent in September, up from 6.1 in August, from a mere 1.7 percent just a year earlier, driven mainly by higher food and energy prices.

The President’s response: ordering agencies to “prioritize food, fuel and electricity,” distributing fuel subsidies for PUV drivers, and expanded Kadiwa programs — all inadequate Band-Aid solutions to a hemorrhaging economy.

Despite the crises, the Palace appears to be desperately focused on the impeachment trial since securing a conviction would eliminate Sara from the ballot and clear the path for a Marcos ally.

The surveys, however, suggest that even with a Senate conviction, the public may not accept the verdict as legitimate but as the act of an administration that has accomplished nothing except the destruction of its opponents, the Dutertes.

The road to 2028 will be paved with the grievances of a people who have watched their government prioritize political warfare to secure presidential succession over addressing flood control, price stability, and basic competence.

The numbers confirm that the Filipino people have not forgotten the floodwaters. They also serve as a warning that the people intend to hold to account those who were too busy settling scores to be bothered with keeping them dry.