Impeachment? Sara still rules

Vice President Sara Duterte continues to command strong voter support despite the impeachment proceedings against her, leading in all five hypothetical presidential race scenarios for the 2028 elections tested in a Pulse Asia survey, with her preference rating reaching as high as 60 percent.

The Ulat ng Bayan national survey, conducted through face-to-face interviews from 17 to 24 September, found Duterte consistently ahead of her rivals in all five candidate combinations, signaling the resilience of her political standing as she stands trial for the charges filed against her.

Her support was particularly formidable in Mindanao, where she secured 94 percent in a hypothetical matchup against Naga City Mayor Leni Robredo and Senator Raffy Tulfo. The result underscored the depth of her regional base despite the controversy surrounding her.

In that three-way race, Duterte achieved 52-percent voter preference, far ahead of Robredo’s 30 percent and Tulfo’s 14 percent.

Duterte also led in four other scenarios, registering 57 percent in two matchups, 54 percent in another, and a high of 60 percent in the fifth.

In one scenario, she received 57 percent against Senator Erwin Tulfo, who garnered 17 percent. In another, she obtained the same 57 percent against Tulfo’s 18 percent and Senator Bam Aquino’s 16 percent.

In a separate matchup against Robredo, Duterte received 54 percent, compared with the Naga mayor’s 40 percent. In the fifth scenario, Duterte’s preference rating climbed to 60 percent, while Senator Risa Hontiveros received 23 percent.

The results suggested the impeachment controversy has yet to dislodge Duterte from the leading position in these hypothetical matchups. The survey, however, did not establish whether the impeachment proceedings have had no effect on her popularity or how voters might respond to subsequent developments.

Her regional numbers reveal a sharply divided electoral landscape.

Aside from her overwhelming support in Mindanao, Duterte received 55 percent in the Visayas. She also garnered 50 percent among socioeconomic Class D respondents and 70 percent among Class E.

In Metro Manila, Duterte and Robredo were statistically tied, receiving 42 percent and 39 percent, respectively. Robredo led in the rest of Luzon, with 39 percent against Duterte’s 31 percent.

Among respondents from socioeconomic Class ABC, Duterte received 47 percent, while Robredo garnered 37 percent.

The findings come as the impeachment trial keeps the questions surrounding Duterte’s handling of public funds in the national spotlight. Her sustained lead presents a significant challenge to potential rivals seeking to build a broad electoral coalition ahead of the 2028 presidential race.

Still, the survey offers a snapshot of voter preferences nearly 20 months before election day.

The eventual outcome will depend on the final candidate lineup, the political alliances, and developments that could reshape the public opinion.

Despite the length of time before the elections, 89 percent of Filipino adults said they were interested in the upcoming electoral exercise, with interest ranging from 85 percent to 97 percent across geographic areas and from 87 percent to 89 percent across socioeconomic classes.