Gasoline bucks oil slump, eyes P2.20 hike

Gasoline prices are set to rise by up to P2.20 per liter next week despite softer global oil prices, as tight Asian fuel supplies continue to outweigh relief from planned reserve releases.

Industry estimates point to a P2 to P2.20 per liter gasoline increase for 13 to 19 October, potentially pushing premium gasoline prices in Metro Manila to as high as P115.53 per liter.

Diesel prices, meanwhile, could fall by P1.80 to P2.00 per liter, highlighting the widening gap between the two fuels as international markets respond differently to supply disruptions.

Contrasting movements

The contrasting movements show how regional refining constraints and fuel shortages can keep Philippine pump prices elevated even when crude oil markets weaken.

Jetti Petroleum president Leo Bellas said on Friday that global oil prices have eased following reserve releases and recovering Middle Eastern supply flows, although persistent security threats continue to cloud the outlook.

“While oil is relatively weaker this week due to reserve releases and recovering Middle Eastern flows, persistent security threats amid tanker attacks and further escalation in the region have heightened supply concerns,” Bellas said.

Gasoline vulnerable

Gasoline remains particularly vulnerable to regional supply constraints as Asian inventories stay low amid refinery shutdowns and China’s fuel export restrictions.

“Asian gasoline remains supported by firm regional demand amid low inventories and continuing supply tightness due to regional refinery shutdowns and China’s export ban,” said Bellas.

Diesel, meanwhile, is benefiting from the Group of Seven’s planned reserve releases, with the International Energy Agency supporting efforts to prioritize diesel supplies.

However, reduced refining output from Russia and the Middle East, alongside production shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico ahead of an approaching hurricane, continues to limit the decline in diesel prices.

Opposing price trend extended

The forecast follows this week’s P1.93 per liter gasoline increase and P1.30 per liter diesel rollback, extending the opposing price trends for another week.

Final pump price adjustments are expected to be announced Monday before taking effect Tuesday, 13 October.