A bullet in the heart

After months of anticipation, the October 2026 Visa Bulletin has finally arrived — with a bang.

A bang caused by a proverbial exploding bullet into the hearts of unskilled Filipino workers waiting for their green card in the US.

To those unfamiliar with the Visa Bulletin, it is a monthly publication issued by the US State Department summarizing the availability of immigrant visas and containing a list of monthly cut-off dates for visa issuance or green card approval within the various immigrant visa categories.

In immigration law parlance, the monthly cut-off date is the layman’s term for “priority date,” which is a person’s place in the line or priority queue for purposes of immigrant visa issuance (for applicants outside the US) or green card approval (for those inside the US).

While irregular priority date movements are not unusual, especially due to the unprecedented impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the immigration process in general, the Visa Bulletin’s unpredictable nature has become more notably pronounced in recent years due to the chaotic immigration policies of the current administration.

Surprisingly, and defying expectations, the monthly cut-off date movements had shown rapid acceleration after the pandemic — especially within the employment-based visa categories, including the unskilled workers category — generating widespread but misplaced excitement among green card hopefuls in the US.

Conversely, the Visa Bulletin has at times been paralyzed by backward visa movements, also known as visa retrogression, causing much anguish and despair for some people.

Unfortunately, this obverse phenomenon has begun to manifest itself again lately, impacting unskilled Filipino workers in the US, a group that includes caregivers, babysitters, cooks, housekeepers, servers, clerks, and the like who are waiting for their immigrant sponsorships to mature.

Prior to January 2026, the prevailing cut-off date was 1 December 2021, which was mostly idle for a spell, leaving many unskilled Filipino workers feeling hopeless. However, when April 2026 rolled around, there was a substantial jump in visa cut-off dates for the unskilled workers category.

Thus, from a mostly stagnant cut-off date of 1 December 2021 in the January 2026 Visa Bulletin, it progressed to 22 June 2022 in March 2026, and again to 1 August 2022 in April 2026, for a total jump of eight months.

As a result, many unskilled Filipino workers whose priority date was 1 August 2022 or earlier were able to apply for adjustment of status (green card) in the US during that period.

As for those whose priority dates were closer to but later than 1 August 2022, they remained relatively hopeful despite being overcome with envy, confident that their turn would come by 1 October 2026 at the latest. Since the visa fiscal year resets every 1 October, substantial forward movement has always been predicted on this date.

Ironically, and despite the fact the October 2026 Visa Bulletin’s release date was a highly anticipated event, it came out with a big delay just two days before the end of September, a historically late timing by any standard.

Adding insult to injury, the cut-off date for the Philippines’ unskilled workers category had made an unexpected jump backward from 1 August 2022 to 1 June 2022, portending an indefinite visa pullback.

To the impacted Filipino green card hopefuls in the US, this bites like a bullet in the heart.