China export freeze fuels gasoline hike

China’s suspension of fuel exports could make gasoline more expensive for Filipino motorists next week, adding another supply constraint to a global petroleum market already strained by refinery disruptions in the Middle East and Russia.

Industry estimates from Monday to Thursday indicate gasoline prices could increase by P1.50 to P1.80 per liter, reversing this week’s marginal decline.

Diesel, on the other hand, could shed another P0.50 to P0.80 per liter, extending this week's rollback.

Based on current prevailing prices, the projected adjustment could push gasoline prices in Metro Manila to around P79.32 to P113.26 per liter, depending on the fuel grade and station. Diesel could ease further to around P83.23 to P102.73 per liter.

Jetti Petroleum Inc. President Leo Bellas said in a text message on Friday that concerns over the stability of global supplies have kept oil prices volatile, with recovering Middle East supply competing with renewed fears of disruptions.

“Lingering supply stability concerns have resulted in oil’s volatile movement this week, with prices pressured as supply from the Middle East rebounded, while stalled US-Iran peace talks and fresh attacks in the Strait of Hormuz caused prices to rise due to disruption worries,” Bellas said.

The pressure intensified after China suspended petroleum product exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau, potentially taking additional supplies out of an already tight global market.

“Prices jumped recently on fears of worsening global product shortages following China’s suspension of exports beyond Hong Kong and Macau, further adding pressure to product markets that are already strained by refinery damage in the Middle East and Russia,” Bellas said.

Oil prices also moved higher following reports of additional US troop movements to the Middle East and the possible resumption of attacks on Iran after the Nov. 3 US midterm elections, according to Bellas.

The competing supply signals have resulted in contrasting prospects at Philippine pumps, with gasoline poised for a sharp rebound while diesel remains on track for another price reduction.

This week, oil companies slashed diesel prices by around P7.57 per liter and gasoline by about P0.24 per liter, although adjustments varied slightly among companies.

Final price adjustments for next week will depend on Friday’s remaining trading activity. The Department of Energy is expected to announce the final price adjustments on Monday.