OPINION

Armed drones for now

“If you have enough of these missiles coming in to attack, it almost doesn’t matter how big your fleet is.

Nick V. Quijano Jr.

China presumes too much in saying that our strategic interests and wishes align with her interests and wishes.

A presumptuousness evident last week when Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi strongly warned our country against approving the deployment of US mid-range missiles here.

“If the Philippines introduces the US intermediate-range missile system, it will create tension and confrontation in the region and trigger an arms race, which is completely not in line with the interests and wishes of the Filipino people,” Wang Yi said.

Offhand, Wang Yi’s dictatorial gumption in speaking on our behalf is downright offensive, leaving only China’s unabashed Filipino lackeys, whose only wish is for Filipinos to kowtow to China, happy.

At any rate, Wang Yi’s inappropriate warning isn’t really about us. Instead, it’s more about China’s fear of losing its regional military advantage should the Americans deploy more medium-range missiles in the region.

As it is, we really don’t know much about what the Americans intend with their surprising deployment of a single battery of the medium-range Typhon missile system during the joint “Salaknib” military exercise in the country early this year.

But analysts say any American intention to deploy more missiles to the region directly threatens the world’s largest navy fleet and the world’s most diverse land-based missile force.

What that means is that if and when the US deploys more missiles to the region, this would essentially counterbalance China’s numerous warships and missiles.

“If you have enough of these missiles coming in to attack, it almost doesn’t matter how big your fleet is,” says one defense analyst.

All this, of course, is heady strategic games between two superpowers scrambling to squeeze any advantage on the battlefield, which leaves us poor defenseless Filipinos gasping for breath.

Strictly speaking, we certainly need to avoid being caught between two giants banging each other’s head.

But this doesn’t mean we cowardly retreat when one giant is deliberately being aggressive in trying to possess our backyard.

Yet, it turns out that we can defend our backyard from Chinese incursions without modern weaponry if we’re imaginative enough to realize that modern warfare has already provided cheap technological solutions in the meantime that we can’t militarily stand against China.

An interim technological solution that would allow us to buy time to achieve a credible defense posture later that would include an array of expensive medium-range missiles.

Surprisingly, it was the Americans themselves who proposed that we take serious notice of an intriguing technological solution that doesn’t involve sophisticated missiles — swarms of armed drones.

On this, American defense analyst Derek Grossman of the think-tank RAND organization suggests the country tie up with the US military’s ongoing Replicator program.

Scheduled to become available by August 2025, the Replicator program seeks to quickly produce thousands of air and naval drones to make up for the numerical shortfall against the Chinese military.

Although the Replicator program’s capabilities remain classified for now, the Americans have already introduced Replicator drones in the Indo-Pacific.

Our defense and economic officials should seriously consider the American suggestion, if only for the intriguing prospect that with American assistance we can jumpstart our own domestic defense industry by manufacturing homegrown long-range drones.

Before anything else, take note that inexpensive drones costing mere thousands of dollars have decidedly transformed modern warfare.

In the ongoing Ukraine war, inexpensive long-range drones — which are fast becoming jam-proof with the aid of artificial intelligence — are proving extremely effective even against air defense missiles.

Besides the cost, unmanned aerial vehicles like Replicators also have the added strategic bonus of potentially easing tensions with China, which also has drones, should there be outright clashes.

This, since drone clashes “takes the human element out of potential clashes at sea,” says Grossman.

Which in turn gives the country, the US and China greater space to negotiate should there occur further violent incidents in the West Philippine Sea.