The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration issued a La Niña watch alert on Thursday as the phenomenon is seen to pre-develop in the coming months.
PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section chief Analiza Solis said the criteria for La Niña Watch under the bureau’s El Niño-Southern Oscillation Alert System were satisfied.
“Today, the established criteria of the PAGASA ENSO Alert System have been satisfied, and La Niña Watch is being issued as of today because there is still a probability of more than 55 percent in the next six months. That is why under the PAGASA ENSO alert system, even though we still have a strong El Niño and feel its impact, we need to issue a La Niña watch,” Solis said.
Under the PAGASA ENSO alert and warning system, four stages are being classified: La Niña watch, La Niña alert, La Niña advisory, and La Niña final advisory.
Solis, however, said that the issuance of the La Niña watch doesn’t guarantee the occurrence of the phenomenon.
“What will be the implication during the La Niña watch? We will look at it because historically, when there is a pre-developing La Niña, below-normal rainfall conditions are what we can feel, especially during the onset of rainy season or monsoon season,” Solis said.
“Even though we issue La Niña watch, our concentration should still be there on the strong El Niño impacts, but this does not mean that we will not talk about the possible impact of La Niña because it is still far and uncertain,” she added.
PAGASA also said that despite the strong El Niño expected to weaken this March, the weather phenomenon’s devastation doesn’t end there, as its impact is expected to continue.
Solis cited the World Meteorological Organization’s Tuesday report, which states that: “It is now gradually weakening but it will continue to impact the global climate in the coming months, fueling the heat trapped by greenhouse gases from human activities. Above normal temperatures are predicted over almost all land areas between March and May.”
Meantime, PAGASA also disclosed that zero to one tropical cyclone may enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this month and in April.
“In the number of typhoons, [there are around] six to nine tropical cyclones. [There is a] slim chance of March and April and from May to August. So there is a possibility that there will be around one or two or two or three come June, July, and August,” Solis said.
From May to June, the weather state bureau estimated that one to two tropical cyclones will enter the PAR each month, while two to three tropical cyclones are expected each month from July to August.