PAGASA: 1 or 2 tropical cyclones may enter Phl in November

Up to two tropical cyclones will likely enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility this  November, the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said Thursday. 

In its latest weather outlook, PAGASA said the northeast monsoon or "Amihan" and a possible occurrence of a low-pressure area will affect the country's weather condition during the observance of Undas 2023. 

The next tropical cyclones will be named Kabayan and Liwayway, respectively. 

The PAGASA's climatological record stated said there are four potential cyclone tracks in November, including a tropical cyclone that may form in the western Pacific and enter the PAR but may recurve towards the northeastern part of the PAR before moving toward Japan or Korea. This cyclone may not make landfall over the Philippines.

Other potential tracks are a cyclone that may make landfall in Southern Luzon, Northern Luzon or Central Luzon before recurving toward Japan or Korea; a cyclone that may make landfall in the central Philippines before moving toward Vietnam; or a cyclone that may make landfall in southern Visayas before moving toward Thailand.

PAGASA also forecasts that one to two tropical cyclones may enter PAR until the end of December. 

Rainy Undas 2023

Meanwhile, the state weather bureau said cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms will prevail over Quezon province, Bicol region and eastern Visayas until Friday, 3 November, due to the combined effects of the shear line and LPA. 

PAGASA warned that floods and landslides are possible in low-lying areas and in mountainous areas due to prolonged rains. 

Further, Cagayan Valley and Aurora will have mostly cloudy skies with light rains, while the Ilocos region, the rest of Central Luzon and Metro Manila will experience isolated rains due to the northeast monsoon. 

The rest of the country will have isolated rains or thunderstorms mostly during the afternoon or evening. 

El Niño phenomenon

While tropical cyclones are still expected, PAGASA said most parts of the country will experience "generally way-below to below-normal" rainfall, with a "very high" probability of below-normal rainfall this month due to the presence of a moderate El Niño.

PAGASA said that the El Nino phenomenon will continue to persist in the tropical Pacific and increases the likelihood of below-normal rainfall "which could bring negative impacts such as dry spells and droughts in some areas of the country" in the last quarter of this year up to the first quarter next year. 

It added that the El Nino phenomenon may be strengthened in the coming months — which means the impacts of El Niño in the country may become more intense and last longer.