The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas, or BSP, says inflation in October have slowed to within the 5.1 percent to 5.9 percent range.
In a statement released Tuesday, BSP said several commodities likely drove last month's inflation slightly lower than the 6.1 percent in September.
"Higher prices of electricity, LPG, fruits, and fish, as well as the recent adjustment in jeepney fares are the primary sources of upward price pressures in October," the central bank said.
Oil prices went up then fell
A few days after the Israel-Hamas war broke out on 7 October, global oil prices increased to $93 per barrel before falling to $83 per barrel in recent weeks, data from Bloomberg showed.
Meanwhile, the government approved a P1.00 fare increase for jeepneys starting 8 October.
Preliminary data on fisheries, on the other hand, revealed higher milkfish prices at P200 per kilo from P180 per kilo. Prices of tilapia, also a favorite fish among consumers, have been steady.
However, BSP said prices of other food items likely prevented the overall inflation from accelerating further.
"Meanwhile, lower prices of rice, meat, and vegetables along with the reduction in the prices of petroleum products could contribute to downward price pressures," BSP said.
The Department of Agriculture had said rice prices should range P36 to P42 per kilo amid the full harvesting season last month. Before this, rice prices jumped to 17.9 percent inflation from 8.7 percent in September.
Settle close to or within BSP forecast
Economists expect October inflation to settle close to or within the BSP forecast due to the aforementioned factors.
Dan Roces, chief economist of Security Bank, pegged his inflation projection at 5 percent. Meanwhile, Michael Ricafort, chief economist of Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., expects 5.4 percent.
"Going forward, the BSP will continue to closely monitor developments affecting the outlook for inflation and growth in line with its data dependent approach to monetary policy formulation," the central bank said.
BSP recently raised its policy rate by 450 basis points to 6.5 percent after the surprise inflation growth to 6.1 percent in September from 5.3 percent in August.
BSP Governor Eli Remolona Jr. said the central bank's Monetary Board is ready to further raise its policy rate at its meeting on 16 November if the October inflation quickened again.