The vagaries of weather

“Nature has inscrutable elements that defy easy explanation. Climate swing is dependent on a number of variables, which are not always constant, a situation oftentimes explained as ‘acts of God.’

PAGASA or the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration committed a blunder again. This time, it was so palpable that nobody was laughing. It blared an alarm bell of an approaching super storm, code-named “Tisoy,” tracking its route on a synoptic weather map in the tri-media. It was going to hit Metro Manila on 3 December. It caused much anxiety and fear. Everybody was on tenterhooks ready to absorb the gales of wind and downpour. The outdoor and aquatic events of the Southeast Asian Games were put on hold, while classes, government offices and other activities were suspended.

Our small golf group we fondly call “Tgers” for Tuesday Group was cursing at nobody. Gloom was written on their faces. For months, we have prepared elaborately for our yearend golf tournament sponsored by celebrants whose birthdays fall on the months of November and December. Reservations with the golf course and restaurant where our usual post-tourney raffle and awarding rites would be held, complete with the food of our choice, were made.

But as it turned out, Metro Manila was spared. 3 December came but there was not much wind and downpour. In fact, on 2 December, alarm signal No. 2 was declared over the metro, but there was not a drop of wind nor a breeze in Quezon City, although it was cloudy. Frankly, we have played golf before in much worse conditions. But we didn’t have a choice. The management of the golf course we chose closed the course allegedly for the safety of players. But it brought near-panic to metro people. They could have done more productive tasks but for the warning from PAGASA. The following day, social media was abuzz with criticism of netizens, and radio commentators had a field day mocking forecasters for the error.

I didn’t complain. As I have always maintained, it is preferable to err on the side of caution than risk lives and property. We have had enough lessons from “Yolanda” and other killer typhoons to take things for granted.

This brings us to the subject of weather forecasting and its fallibility.

As early as when the Neanderthal man lived in a cave, man has found the need to detect signs for rains, destructive wind and other atmospheric disturbances. His only instrument was keen visual observation. We are told that just by looking at the stars at night they could tell whether the following days would be sunny or cloudy. And by the noise created by animals and fowls, they could tell the impending eruption of volcanoes and other erratic climates. They needed this information in their search for food and safety.

Weather forecasting has played an important role on policy makers especially in times of war. During the 6 June 1942 historic invasion by Western Allies of Normandy in World War II, the weather played a crucial role. Likewise, in the field of aviation, the atmospheric condition is the primordial consideration for the safety of airplane passengers.

Hydrometeorology as a science has evolved exponentially. Now, with the advances in computer science and information technology, weather forecasting is near accurate. Forecasting agencies are now equipped with satellites, Doppler radars and other state-of-the-art technologies to make the job facile. Climatologists had never had it so good as today with these cutting-edge technologies.

Impending disasters are known in advance which spared millions from tragedy.

But has it always been infallible in its prediction? While generally it has succeeded in warning people of an incoming storm, it has failed in some instances in determining with certitude its intensity and scope. But of course, nature has inscrutable elements that defy easy explanation. Climate swing is dependent on a number of variables, which are not always constant, a situation oftentimes explained as “acts of God” beyond the capacity of science to explain, but which religion claims as a manifestation of the power of the Supreme Creator.

In the Philippines, PAGASA as a government agency mandated to monitor atmospheric phenomena has oftentimes become the butt of jokes of people. They call it unkindly as “walang pag-asa,” meaning without hope. It has committed past miscalculations in its predictions. They sometimes report of an impending inclement weather that forces authorities to declare class and office suspensions only to eat their words later.

Epilogue: Our tournament was reset to the first week of January 2020 to the consternation of members.