Peso to keep near term strength

The local unit, the peso, which closed P50.74 against the dollar on Thursday, is seen to move and settle within the P50 level during the week, various private sector economists said over the weekend.

Security Bank chief economist Robert Dan Roces said the peso crossing the P51 per dollar level was unlikely but pegged the peso trading within the P50.5 to P50.8 range.

“The peso might stay near the P50.50 to P50.80 levels…as a slew of US economic data defied expectations that gave scope for a stronger dollar (and) might be tempered by news about the ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China,” Roces said.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. lead economist Michael Ricafort provided a wider outlook of the peso trading within P50.5 to the P51 band.

“The peso closed stronger versus the US dollar at P50.74, the strongest in more than 21 months (or since January 19, 2018 when it closed at P50.72), from Wednesday’s P54.88, after the recent decline in the US dollar versus major global/Asian currencies in reaction to the Federal Reserve’s latest and widely expected 0.25-cut on its key short-term US interest rate to a target range of 1.50 percent to 1.75 percent, the third quarter-point cut so far in 2019,” Ricafort said.

The peso was also stronger partly due to some increase in overseas Filipino workers (OFW) remittances and conversion to pesos to finance holiday spending/vacations/travels for this long holiday weekend, he added.

According to him, expectations of weaker US jobs/labor data to be announced on 1 November, also weighed down the US dollar.

Likewise, ING Bank senior economist Nicholas Mapa project the same outlook and expect peso to appreciate to as high as P50.32 but not weaker than P51.39, noting the same influences plus the stronger trading at the Philippine Stock Exchange (PSE) given anticipation of a much higher local output growth measured as the gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter this year.

“Foreign investors returned to Philippine market with the PSE registering the fourth day of net inflows, with traders pricing in a rumored strong third quarter GDP print,” Mapa said.