Don’t bank on surveys

“Despite a seven percentage drop in approval and trust ratings, a 78 percent approval rating is still fairly high, even if his second quarter rating had an 85 percent.

It wasn’t quite a day for rejoicing by the Yellows, when the approval and trust ratings of President Duterte fell in the third quarter, based on the latest Pulse Asia survey, mainly because the yellows have nothing to cheer about the approval and trust ratings of Vice President Leni Robredo that also fell several notches down.

Only 8 percent disapproved of Duterte’s performance, with 14 percent saying they remain undecided.

Not so fast, Yellows. It’s still the wrong time to bring down Duterte, because despite a seven percentage drop in approval and trust ratings, a 78 percent approval rating is still fairly high, even if his second quarter rating had an 85 percent.

Besides, these surveys are next to useless, considering the fact that such surveys do not state precisely just what the respondents approve and disapprove of, by way of approval and trust ratings. It’s usually an overall general question whether a respondent approves or disapproves of whoever.

It would be fairly difficult for the critics to attribute the Duterte drop to the drug war and high prices, since Robredo’s rating also went down, although Barry Gutierrez, her voluble spokesman, stated that the survey result is a challenge to the vice president’s camp to redouble its efforts in serving the public and keeping the Filipinos informed of the work Robredo is doing.

It would have been a different statement coming from the VP spokesman had the survey results shown Duterte’s survey ratings’ drop with Leni’s rating zooming. No doubt there would be non-stop plans to oust the present Malacañang tenant again as the yellows have been waiting for the right political mix to stage yet another farcical Edsa revolt, knowing that with Leni out of the picture before 2022, there is no chance of the yellows recapturing political power between now and 2022. As political things stand today, the Liberal Party appears to be in a comatose state.

Already, Leni appears to be in a wobbly political situation, especially if the Supreme Court (SC), sitting as the Presidential Electoral Tribunal, junked the Aquino appointed Justice Caguioa’s draft ruling that was reported to have been deliberated upon yesterday.

A newspaper report yesterday stated that the majority of the SC justices, according to the its sources, is poised to junk Caguioa’s draft ruling that called for the dismissal of the Marcos protest, which would have ended the protest and paved the way for Robredo’s election victory affirmed.

If the report is accurate, Robredo may even find herself without a job and a title, which she had used to paint a negative picture abroad of the country under Duterte with his war on drugs.

Obviously, that constant volley of verbal attacks by the yellows against the Duterte regime, especially on the non-stop criticisms on the exaggerated numbers of extrajudicial killings that they can hardly prove, hasn’t done much damage on the survey ratings of Duterte.

But really, politicians should not bank on surveys to get an accurate picture of their approval or disapproval survey ratings, because more often than not, surveys hardly reflect the reality, which is probably the reason these survey outfits always claim such polls as just a “snapshot.”

Just how many surveys — especially on candidates during election years — have been proven wrong? Too many to count, if truth be told, which is why people really shouldn’t put too much store on such political surveys, most of which are tinged with partisanship.

Besides, even a fairly accurate survey during election campaign season may end up with the survey firm’s client, losing the election, since the country continues to operate under the automated election system, which has given this country politicians who are not the electorate’s choice, given the massive fraud committed in every election since automation elections were handled by Smartmatic and the Commission on Election’s cheating syndicate.

Presidential spokesman Salvador Panelo, reacting to the latest survey drop of Duterte, said: “The rating is still high, it’s more than 70 percent. Surveys fluctuate depending on when they get them. If it is taken at a time when there are controversies hounding, that may affect survey results.”

The same survey also showed that the approval and trust ratings of Vice President Leni Robredo and Senate President Vicente Sotto III also went down.

Reports said that Robredo’s third quarter approval rating dropped to 50 percent from 55 percent in June. Her trust rating also fell by six points to 46 percent in the third quarter from 52 percent. What controversies then caused Leni’s decline? Her constant verbal attacks against Duterte and his government?

So did Sotto suffer a drop compared to his second quarter rating score, but it is in the 70’s which is still a high number.

All this probably goes to prove that surveys can’t be believed in too much. They are useless numbers anyway and may not reflect political reality.