Stronger peso seen over near term

Lower global crude oil prices among two-month lows could also support the sentiment on the peso exchange rate versus the US dollar.

The possibility of further cuts by the Fed and the shift of the peso’s strength to financial markets stability and domestic growth outlook could make for a stronger currency this week.

The country’s local unit, the peso, was seen appreciating as high as P51.5 against the dollar this week, various private sector economists said over the weekend.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. lead economist Michael Ricafort forecast the local unit to settle within the P51.5 to P52 per dollar range, saying the greenback’s impact against major global/Asian currencies depend on latest US jobs data.

“The peso could range P51.5 to P52… especially if there would be signs of softness in the (US) jobs data,” Ricafort said in a text message.

“Lower global crude oil prices among two-month lows could also support the sentiment on the peso exchange rate versus the US dollar,” he added.

Union Bank of the Philippines chief economist Carlo Asuncion forecasts a different exchange path ranging from P51.5 to P51.8 on basically the same driver.

ING Bank senior economist Nicholas Mapa forecasts the local unit from P51.56 to P51.95 owing to the possibility of further cuts by the US Fed and the peso strengthening due to stability in financial markets and the outlook on domestic growth.

“(This) week, we’ll have (the) trade data which will likely point to a sustained widening of the trade balance. However, this has become less of a story with regard to currency movements in 2019 as the peso appears to be more influenced by expectations on stability in financial markets and forecasts for economic growth,” Mapa said in an email.

The peso closed stronger against the US dollar during Friday’s trading to P51.73, an eight-centavo improvement from only P51.81.

Meanwhile, Treasury bill (T-bill) yields were to persist on the down path and in contrast to the increase in Treasury bond rates, as has happened the past two weeks in a series.

“T-bill yields could adjust lower to partly reflect the latest 0.25 percent cut in local policy rate and the surprise decision to cut the RRR (reserve requirement ratio) by 1 percentage point,” Ricafort said.

“On external factors, (T-bill) auction yields could ease after lower global crude oil prices,” he added.