Keep trading barbs instead of missiles

“Recent developments have upped the ante in the political game. Once again, the drums of war are heard in the vast deserts of the Middle East with the saber-rattling of President Trump.

Last weekend, there was a long queue of cars in gas-filling stations. For the nth time, another round of increase in oil prices loomed. This time, it was a big-time increase, the effect of which really pinched the public.

While the volatile global oil market has always been the whipping boy in the fluctuation of prices, this time the culprit for the spike was categorically identified, i.e., the bombing of the oil processing facilities of Saudi Arabia considered to be “the nerve center to the world’s largest oil producer.” It has destroyed half of Saudi Arabia’s oil production.

Without mincing words, Saudi Arabia and its big brother, the United States pointed an accusing finger on a common enemy — Iran. It has denied responsibility, with the Houthi rebels claiming accountability, but this was casually dismissed by President Trump.

In my previous column, I described the political rivalry for hegemony in the Middle East region between the two Muslim powerful states — Saudi Arabia and Iran. I traced the root of their sour relationship to the schism of Muslims into Sunni and Shia, which was blamed by analysts on the failure of Prophet Muhammad, PBUH to name the caliph and successor before his death. The sweeping wind of activism and radicalization brought by the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, which saw the downfall of the Pahlavi dynasty, was seen as a red flag to the ultra-conservative and laidback Saudi monarchy. These and other factors help explain the cold war between the two Muslim states.

Their animosity took a face in the proxy power play in parts of the region like in Syria and Lebanon. The public face-off is in Yemen now, turned into a theater of war. Saudi Arabia with its de facto head, Crown Prince Muhamad Bin Salman, who is radically reforming the kingdom into a more tolerant open society, has initiated the alliance of forces from different Arab states against the Houthi rebels of Yemen, which on the other hand is openly bankrolled by Iran and supported with war material.

The recent developments have upped the ante in the political game. Once again, the drums of war are heard in the vast deserts of the Middle East with the saber-rattling of President Trump.

America has been taking an active role in the power play showing unabashedly for all the world to see its support for Saudi Arabia. The world witnessed these past months calculated military and political maneuvers by protagonists bringing the region to the brink of open hostilities.

Trump has ratcheted up its support for Saudi Arabia. The latest is its twin moves against Iran’s central bank and economic sanctions, and the sending of additional troops in the Gulf region.

America, true to form, is riding on the crest of the crisis for political and selfish economic consideration. As one of the world’s biggest producer of military armaments, it needs clients to buy its products and boost its economy. There is a threat of the cold war of yore resurfacing, drawing Russia, China and probably North Korea back to the chessboard of global politics.

The world is on tenterhooks hoping the protagonist continue to trade barbs instead of missiles. War will be Armageddon because of the nuclear capabilities of both countries.

Should the tension flare up into a shooting war, it will be a nightmare for Filipinos and the government. Our government will be caught with its pants down because of lack of preparedness.

As a former diplomat, I know that our embassies have contingency plans in place for the safe evacuation of our overseas Filipino workers (OFW). But these need updating attuned to present challenges. Our Labor department should craft an emergency plan for the millions of OFW who will be displaced. Our economic managers should likewise anticipate its impact on our remittance-based economy.

For Muslims, the face-off between the two has shattered the veneer of unity or whatever is left of it. It will deny the concept of Ummah or world Muslim brotherhood that makes them weak and vulnerable to manipulation by superpowers like the United States. Filipino Muslims pray that the holy shrines in the cities of Mecca and Madinah will be spared from destruction, else, where will they perform their annual pilgrimage strictly mandated by Islam?

Government policy makers should adopt a proactive policy and not be nonchalant over the threat. They must draw the contingency plans suggested.