Political parties come and go

Presidential daughter Davao City Mayor Sara Duterte and the political party she recently formed appear to be ready to do battle with the deposed Speaker Pantaleon Alvarez and his Partido Demokratiko Pilipino (PDP) in next year’s polls in the Davao region, which includes Davao del Norte province, where Alvarez himself is expected to run for a congressional post.

The way I see it, Sara Duterte knows that her challenge to Alvarez is one where she knows she will win, hands down. After all, she, a mayor and a non-member of the House of Representatives had succeeded in ousting Alvarez. And as things go when a high-ranking politician, whether he or she be president, Vice President, Senate president, House speaker is ousted or out of the political loop, whoever his supporters were, have shifted allegiance to whoever replaces the ousted high ranking official.

Given this “tradition,” it can be safely deduced that Alvarez’s early PDP bets from the Davao region and even the ruling party’s senatorial bets are no longer allied with him as they have transferred their political loyalty to the presidential daughter.

Mayor Duterte has also announced her endorsement of several senatorial candidates running in the 2019 polls, many of whom have identified themselves with her party.

Sara Duterte was quoted as saying that they “are preparing for the PDP to field a full slate,” during the oath-taking ceremony at the Davao del Norte Sports and Tourism Complex.

She swore in new members of her regional political party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago (HnP).

The latest to join HnP reportedly numbered 6,000 provincial, town and village officials from Davao del Norte who took their oaths as new HnP members before Mayor Duterte.

Even more ambitious is Mayor Duterte’s plan for the HnP to continue building and recruiting new members even outside the Davao region by forming alliances with local government units (LGU) across the country.

“We would sign up alliances with other LGU and come up with a senatorial slate,” Mayor Duterte said.

“We are recruiting more members and focus on the 2019 elections,” she added.

For the 2019 elections, regionally, Sara Duterte and her choice bets in Davao will probably win, with her support, given the fact that her father remains as president until 2022.

Davao City is Duterte territory and will probably stay as Duterte territory, except perhaps that in the twilight of Rody Duterte’s reign as president, a new political figure may appear in the political horizon and become the next president, after which the political clout of father and daughter wanes and in time ends—except for their political clout in Davao City.

This always happens in this country, what with the political world filled to the brim with political turncoats.

When Cory Aquino ascended to the presidency in 1986, suddenly, politicians were all for her and the political party under which she ran—the United Nationalist Democratic Organization (UNIDO)—but one she quickly dumped, along with the party founder, Doy Laurel.

The UNIDO became a mere paper party. Then came the Ramon Mitra party with which she was identified politically until she dumped Mitra and his party for then defense chief Fidel Ramos and his paper party, which became the ruling party.

This has happened to every political party, paper party or a politically strong party. They go down the drain when a president is ousted or a new one takes over even without having been elected.

The PDP, which before Rody Duterte came into the national consciousness and is– strictly speaking– not his party, but is now the ruling party by virtue of his being president, is expected to disappear from the political scene in 2022. The speculative buzz is that the presidential daughter is also apparently readying her HnP-PDP combine not only for 2019 but also for 2022, which if successful in 2019, Sara may think of the presidency in 2022, to succeed her father.

Reports say that Sara Duterte and her HnP will likely endorse six to eight senatorial candidates in the 2019 midterm elections.

This may or may not be a good move on the part of the presidential daughter.

It would be a very good decision on her part if her endorsed candidates win 2019. Some of whom she had reportedly endorsed are likely to win seats in the Senate, as some of them already have been doing well in the pre-election surveys, being included regularly in the Magic 12 circle. Others, however, are not doing that well in the pre-poll surveys, although to be fair, it really is too early to gauge the political strength of endorsed HnP senatorial bets.

Being allied with Sara’s HnP may give these weak senatorial bets a slice of the Davao region vote. Who knows?

However, if her endorsed senatorial bets win, how strong will her endorsement with a HnP-PDP combine be in 2022, when presidential polls come around, especially since federal parliamentary system may likely not come about?