Critics’ potent weapon vs federalism

Rep. Gloria Arroyo’s ascension to the top House of Representatives post may have repercussions—not on the House itself but perhaps on her having been elected as Speaker by the majority of congressmen.

The impact will be on whether Gloria Arroyo, as Speaker, succeeds in delivering to President Duterte the legislative measure creating the establishment of the Federal Republic of the Philippines that will usher in the parliamentary system.

There is even grave doubt that Speaker Arroyo will even succeed in getting a plebiscite going for the shift as she will be unable to get the Senate to go along with that proposal.

For the critics, Speaker Arroyo’s rise to power again will turn this issue into their most persuasive weapon these critics can use to demolish all moves to establish the federal system in this country.

The potent weapon critics have in their hand is the scenario buildup of Arroyo becoming the first prime minister under a Federal Republic of the Philippines.

Unfortunately for now Speaker Arroyo, her past as President, has not been forgotten by the Filipino people, especially her critics, a situation that will probably make it very difficult for her to push moves for federalism in this country.

Already, one of her staunchest critics, Sen. Panfilo Lacson, called the abrupt change a coup that Arroyo and her allies carried out on Monday to topple Davao del Norte Rep. Pantaleon Alvarez from the top post in the House, saying it was “awkward, ugly, low and disgraceful.”

He added that Arroyo’s election as Speaker is a strong argument against moves for a shift to the parliamentary system.

If there is a plot to make Arroyo the prime minister, those behind it should rethink what they are hatching as the Senate would not allow it, Lacson said.

During the elections in 2004, Arroyo was accused of rigging the elections and her administration was plagued with allegations of graft involving Chinese companies. This was denied by her.

Arroyo’s husband, Mike Arroyo, was also embroiled in corruption cases lodged against him.

As prime minister Gloria Arroyo, husband Mike Arroyo will again be in ascendancy in business and politics.

Sen. Grace Poe warned that in the proposed parliamentary government, the leader of Congress would be nearly as powerful as the President.

“So let us say the Speaker now would be the Speaker during that time. Is that the kind of change you want? We all know what we went through for nine, 10 years,” Poe said.

But Poe’s main beef against Arroyo was the former President’s alleged cheating of her father, the late popular actor Fernando Poe Jr., who accused Arroyo of fraudulently obtaining an advantage of more than a million votes in their faceoff for the presidency in 2004.

Given the fierce criticism on Gloria’s rise to power again, chances are high that the scenario of Speaker Arroyo becoming the first prime minister under a federal republic will not happen and neither will there be a charter change (cha-cha) because there is already today so much opposition to the idea of a Federal Republic of the Philippines.

The thing is, this idea of the creation of a federal-parliamentary government through the cha-cha won’t even reach first base because truth is, the Senate is not going to budge from its stand of separate voting under a constituent assembly (con-ass).

Still, even if the scenario of separate voting for the Senate is accepted by the House, the same conclusion will be obtained, because the Senate will not be able to gather enough signatures from its senators to cast their votes for cha-cha through a con-ass.

By October, all those who want to join the elections, will be going to the poll body to file their certificates of candidacy which really gives very little time for both the House and the Senate to get together and come up to cancel elections in 2019. It is also too late for Congress to bother with cha-cha at this time when its members’ focus would be on their reelection.

And in the case of all the members of Congress, all will have to be out with some returning for the 18th Congress’ opening. The one political personality who will not be around is the incumbent Speaker Gloria Arroyo who is on her last term and can’t run again—at least under the 1987 Constitution.

Not even a Speaker Arroyo can perform the impossible task of delivering to President Duterte a federal parliamentary government in 2019 and perhaps even beyond.

There go the ambitions of members of Congress who hoped to extend their terms automatically through a no election scenario.

The congressmen who hoped for a federal parliamentary change may just have had their hopes crushed through an abrupt change in speakership and may now be wondering if Speaker Arroyo can deliver what is expected of her by the Palace tenant.

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