Sereno’s political plans and rivals

“Sereno was not the Supreme Court, and she was not the judiciary, either.”

This early, it looks like ousted Supreme Court Chief Justice Maria Lourdes Sereno is already comporting as a candidate for the Senate next year, or for President in the 2022 national elections.

Sereno’s strategy is quite obvious. As early as her impeachment in the House of Representatives, and even long after her ignominious ouster as Chief Justice, Sereno exerted considerable effort in accusing President Rodrigo Duterte of masterminding her removal from office.

From all indications, Sereno badly needed someone to blame for her ouster if only to give the public the mistaken impression that there was no legal basis for her removal as Chief Justice — even if her own colleagues ruled her ouster was valid.

Being an erstwhile magistrate of the Supreme Court, Sereno must have been aware the validity of her appointment as Chief Justice in 2012 was an issue that should have been resolved not by impeachment but through quo warranto and that a void appointment never lapses through mere time.

Recall that before the Solicitor General resorted to quo warranto, she vehemently assailed the House of Representatives justice committee for entertaining the impeachment complaint against her. When the threat of quo warranto became manifest, Sereno changed her mind and declared she could only be removed through impeachment.

Impeachment is a legal remedy allowed by the Constitution. Quo warranto is a legal remedy available in the rules of court procedure long before Sereno was even born. When these remedies were used against Sereno, they suddenly were unacceptable to her.

The foregoing notwithstanding, Sereno chose to publicly discredit the reputation of her colleagues in the Supreme Court by suggesting that those who voted to oust her do not know the law. Then by accusing Duterte of masterminding her ouster through the Supreme Court, Sereno practically labelled her judicial colleagues as puppets of the President.

Sereno’s biggest folly is her strategy to equate her removal from office to an orchestrated attack against the independence of the judiciary in general, and the Supreme Court in particular. Most certainly, Sereno was not the Supreme Court, and she was not the judiciary, either.

Besides, when the removal of the Chief Justice is with the legal blessings of her own colleagues in the Supreme Court, and when her ouster is publicly sought by trial court judges all over the country, then her removal from office cannot be construed as a threat to the independence of the judiciary. It could have been a threat to Sereno’s plans of holding on to public office, but it was not a threat to judicial independence.

“Leni Robredo, the purported Vice President of the country, also desperately wants to be President .”

To many observers, Sereno was so attached to her powerful post as Chief Justice that she didn’t even have second thoughts about publicly insulting the Supreme Court and its justices, openly disavowing established rules of court procedure and encouraging public scorn for constitutional processes like impeachment. In the end, Sereno made history by single-handedly eroding public faith and confidence in the Constitution and in the judicial process when she was Chief Justice.

In blaming Duterte for her removal from office, Sereno also hoped to get all anti-Duterte groups to sympathize with her, enough to give her their votes on election day. More specifically, Sereno’s misguided followers want their candidate to top the 2019 senatorial polls and, from there, launch her campaign for the presidency in 2022.

Perhaps Sereno can get the moribund, anti-Duterte Liberal Party to get her enough votes to win in the Senate race, but her landing first place may be a pipe dream. Many senatorial hopefuls do not have the political baggage Sereno currently carries.

Running for the presidency in 2022 may be an option for Sereno, but she is not assured of the full support of anti-Duterte groups. Leni Robredo, the purported Vice President of the country, also desperately wants to be President and she expects the LP to anoint her as party standard-bearer.

Even if Sereno manages to get herself anointed as the presidential candidate of the LP, there are other presidential candidates more acceptable to the voters on election day next year.

One likely rival, a senator, is already organizing his own political party which will bear his initials. Look at some signages at the Mandaluyong segment of the southbound lane of Epifanio de los Santos Avenue for clues.

Another likely rival is preparing to leave high public office in about two years or so and is expected to make full use of the nationalist image his handlers have been working on for him since last year.

Therefore, if Sereno believes that her anti-Duterte bashing spree is enough to endear her to the voters in 2019 or in 2022, she may be in for an unpleasant surprise.

Another variable to consider is government plan to go federal, a move that requires amendments to the Constitution and their ratification by the electorate in a plebiscite. If that scenario takes place, all bets will be off because more surprises are to be expected.