Crux of the matter

President Rody Duterte’s independent foreign policy is getting international realization, particularly on his move to diversify to non-traditional allies, which is now emerging as a model among developing countries.

The Australia-based think tank Lowy Institute compared the foreign policies of Rody and his predecessor former President Noynoy Aquino and found in a study Rody is coming out ahead in terms of economic and political gains.

Noynoy, of course, took the yellow liberal path of belligerence on China and maintaining an almost exclusive relations with the United States and its European allies that resulted in his taking the territorial dispute with China to arbitration.

“In contrast, Duterte’s foreign policy has adopted broad engagement with China, bilateral consultations on the South China Sea, and an assertion of strategic autonomy from US foreign policy. This has produced favorable, if targeted, results for the Philippines,” a study undertaken by Lowy Institute researcher Aaron Jed Rabena stated.

Through Rody’s policy, the country’s diplomatic and political relations with non-traditional partners have improved.

The study noted apart from the US and Japan, China and Russia have unprecedentedly provided military aid and assistance to the Philippines.

The policy shift did not result in alienating the United States either as the study noted more than ever, the American government is providing bigger aid to the Philippines.

“Because of the uncertainty that Duterte introduced to Philippine–American alliance, Manila’s diplomatic and strategic value to Washington has increased, which can be observed in the latter’s improved offer of military assets,” the study noted.

Another distinct gain of Rody’s policy is major powers such as China and Japan are now competing for infrastructure and development projects in the Philippines.

“Duterte’s other notable efforts include the long-overdue structural improvements on occupied features in the Spratlys and the continuation of Aquino’s military modernization push, with additional plans to acquire another squadron of fourth-generation fighter jets from South Korea and diesel-electric submarines from Russia,” it added.

“To pass judgment on Duterte’s foreign policy based solely on his underdog pronouncements towards China overlooks the broader gains of his foreign policy,” the study noted.

In contrast, the study said Noynoy’s move towards arbitration, “together with the Aquino government’s outright alignment with Washington and diplomatic confrontation with China at every regional forum, led to several unwanted outcomes for the Philippines.”

It added the risk of conflict increased as there was sustained harassment of Philippine supply vessels and fishermen while it appeared Sino-Philippine bilateral relations only revolved on the South China Sea. “Moreover, China unabashedly carried on with its land reclamation operations,” it added.

The study noted during Aquino’s term, both reclamation and harassment of Philippine vessels and fishermen took place simultaneously, making the Philippines appear a primary target of Chinese aggression.

“Under Duterte, interceptions of Philippine supply vessels and fishermen have ceased, but the militarization of the waterways has continued, which makes Duterte confident that China’s efforts are directed at the US,” it added.

It cited Duterte’s mindset that “the Philippines ought to be disentangled from great power politics.”

In its power rivalry with the US, the study said China’s dilemma is in overcoming “security interdependence” which the study described as a “situation where direct response to US actions would indirectly provoke insecurity from third-party states and lead to the potential erosion of political capital of their ruling authorities.”

“To say the Duterte government has adopted a policy of appeasement may be premature, as the Philippines has not yet lost any of its occupied features in the South China Sea,” it added.

It said significantly, what the Duterte government has demonstrated is that there are alternative diplomatic strategies in safeguarding sovereign rights and national interests which is partly reflective of other nations’ (India, Malaysia, Vietnam) strategies on China.

In so many words, the study said Rody has a sharper appreciation of geopolitics and how to extract maximum gain from the global power play.