BSP poll: Optimism up in 2nd quarter

Consumer confidence turned more optimistic for the second quarter partly as a result of improved public order and higher income based on the results of the periodic Consumer Expectation Survey (CES) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP).

The survey showed the overall confidence index (CI) increasing to 3.8 percent in April to June from 1.7 percent in the first quarter.

The higher CI indicates optimists increased and continued to outnumber the pessimists, according to the BSP. The CI is obtained by taking the percentage of households that answered in the affirmative less the percentage of households that answered in the negative on a given indicator.

Respondents attributed the positive outlook to their expectations of an improvement in peace and order, additional income, availability of more jobs, effective government policies, and increase in family savings.

The survey showed for the next quarter and the year ahead, optimism remained generally steady, as the CIs showed a small decline from the previous quarter’s survey.

The relatively steady outlook for the next quarter and the year ahead resulted from the number of respondents that reported more positive views on the economy, in anticipation of more jobs and additional income that was more than those with negative views due to expectations of higher prices of goods.

For the second quarter, improved sentiment on the economic condition and family financial situation outweighed the less favorable outlook on family income.

The CIs on economic indicators and family financial situation rebounded to the positive territory for the current quarter while family income edged lower from a quarter ago.

For the near term and the year ahead, consumer confidence on economic condition was more optimistic while outlook on family financial situation and income turned less positive, the survey showed.

Consumer outlook across income groups also improved for the current quarter but was mixed for the next quarter and the year ahead.

For the current quarter, the low-income group remained mostly pessimistic due to the expected high prices of goods and reduced income.

The number of pessimists, however, declined compared to the results of the previous quarter’s survey.

Meanwhile, the middle- and high-income groups were both more optimistic for the current quarter as they anticipated improvement in peace and order, additional income, and salary increase.

For the next quarter, the sentiment of consumers was less favorable for the low-income, broadly steady for the high-income but was more upbeat for the middle-income group. For the year ahead, consumer outlook was more optimistic for the low-income group but was less favorable for the middle- and high-income groups.

The spending outlook index on basic goods and services was broadly steady at 36.3 percent for the third quarter from 37.1 percent in the prior survey.

Higher spending was expected on house rent and furnishings, communication, education, recreation and culture, and restaurants and cafes, indicating that inflationary pressures could come from these goods and services.

Meanwhile, fewer respondents indicated higher expenditures on food, non-alcoholic and alcoholic beverages, water, electricity, fuel, and transportation. The spending outlook was generally steady for clothing and footwear, medical care, and personal care and effects.

The BSP said the survey was conducted from April 2 to 14 among samples were drawn from the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) Master Sample List of Households, which is considered a representative sample of households nationwide.

The CES was taken from among 5,517 households, of which 2,681 (48.6 percent) were from the National Capital Region (NCR) and 2,836 (51.4 percent) from Areas Oustide NCR (AONCR).

Of the sample size, 5,339 households responded to the survey, equivalent to a response rate of 96.8 percent (from 97 percent in the last quarter’s survey), the BSP said.

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